Things to keep in mind

We (re)learned a few important lessons last night:

1. Why senators nearly never become president
   
2. Why having TWO senators run for president is a lose-lose situation
   
3. That Barack Obama, on a good night, can appear more energetic than a 72yo man.  Barely.
   

Ok, now I know times are dire.

How do you know the end times have come?  When you find yourself thinking "What the country really needs right now is Bill Clinton".

Lying under oath, pardons for sale, that wagging finger, Jamie Gorelick, Sandy Berger, letting bin Laden grow stronger for a decade, ...  Yeah, him.  I detest the man.

But congress has single-digit popularity for a reason.  They suck at everything they do - both sides.  We've got no one with the skill and recognition to go out and preach the sermon that the american economy is worth saving.  Reid and Pelosi are idiots.  Bush is too tired.  And Obama is just a joke hoping to make it to election day without getting pinned down by anything of substance.

If McCain really is a maverick, and really can forge alliances, he should pick up the phone and call Bill Clinton.  The talking points with him should include:

• This isn't a request for an endorsement.  This is bigger than the campaign.
  
• You understand this and you have good people at your disposal.  I'm not giving you talking points.  Just please go out there and explain this stuff to people.  Just be available.  Be a face for the American economy.  Argue for good governance and sound financial management however you see fit.

Bill loves this stuff - both the complexities of the problem and the being sought out as a senior statesman.  And dammit, he's good at it.

I have to go throw up now.

On Palin

At this point, I have to admit, I'm just hoping Palin craters so badly in the debate that McCain can try a new VP candidate.

I know, I suck.  I should be hoping she finds her voice, kicks ass, and saves the day.  That's the way it happens in the movies, right?  And wasn't Sarah Palin presented more as a movie character than a real human being?  She was Xena, River Tam, and Buffy, all rolled up in a Mrs. Smith Goes to Washington package.

McCain likes stories.  His are pretty incredible, so I can see why he might, at some level, believe that a great story, just by virtue of being a great story, has some sort of inherent virtue and inevitability.

But for every great story, there are thousands of stories that turn out to be exactly what they looked like.  The hockey-mom turned corruption-fighting governor was also the small-town girl who wandered between 5 unremarkable schools only to get knocked up in her early 20's, marry her high-school boyfriend, and move back to her home town never to bother with the wider world enough to even consider getting a passport for the next 20+ years.  Is anyone really shocked that this story is turning out the way it is?

This is not meant to damn Sarah Palin.  She's accomplished a great deal in her life, and may go on to accomplish even greater things.  But success in national politics depends on more than just grit, authenticity, and, yes, even raw talent.

Memories

It seems like just yesterday when energy policy dominated the debate.

Suspension - WTF?

I think there is only one scenario where this isn't going to turn out horribly for McCain - that is if the stock market absolutely, massively plunges tomorrow or Friday. In that case, he can say with some authority "Told ya so."

I think any other scenario is just going to result in this looking like some desperate grandstanding event and a way to wiggle out of one of the debates. These are the things that 10+ point shifts are made of.

It reminds me far too much of Jimmy Carter's self-imposed exile during the hostage crisis. A leader isn't shown cutting back in times of crisis; a leader is shown working twice as hard as everyone else. Otherwise the message sent is that he is low on resources and perhaps only one more insult away from being toppled completely.

Reid/Pelosi '08

Obama supporters have been saying the phrase "Bush/McCain" in what feels like every other sentence.  Not to much effect I think; most non-kos people don't seem to be buying it.  When one thinks of the architects of the last 8 years, McCain does not land on the short-list.

I do think Obama is vulnerable to being tied to Reid and Pelosi however.  The popularity of Congress is at an unbelievably low level.  The Democratic takeover of '06 brought absolutely no change or reform.  If Obama is a weak leader (and he certainly looks like one), Reid and Pelosi will be the ones running the government for the next 4 years.  That has to terrify a good number of people.

It certainly scares me.  I have visions of a poster with Obama in the middle looking noble, but small, and then the grim faces of Reid and Pelosi looming large over him.

Blame Mexico

The immigration debate has been one of the most polarizing topics this election cycle and almost tanked the McCain campaign last summer.  People on different sides of the issue (fence vs no fence, deportation vs amnesty, documents vs no documents, etc.) seem to believe that any view that is not theirs is nothing short of treason.

One question I don't hear from any of the sides is "What the f*ck is wrong with the Mexican government?"  They share a huge border with us and have one of the best free-trade deals on the planet and the best they can do is send their people on a march through the desert so they can ship money back via Western Union?  How messed up is that?

So, if immigration comes up again, and it almost certainly will at a debate, I'd like to see McCain try to shift the narrative from the illegal immigrants and put the focus on how we need to pressure (and help) Mexico to reform its institutions so its citizens have more options than to live illegally in another country.